DCA BotBacktest ResultsEvents

Independently reproduced · BTC & ETH futures

Don't trust our backtest. Check it.

We paid an independent analyst, Ranveer Verma, to rebuild our BTC and ETH futures backtests without our engine's source code — from our written specification, the parameters we supplied and our answers to the reviewer's questions — and rerun them on the same Binance trade data. All 14,018 BTC baseline cycles matched, and ETH was reproduced over 2.96 billion trades. The review also caught an error of ours and listed what the results do not prove. The reports and code are public on GitHub.

All 14,018
BTC baseline cycles matched — open time, close time and ladder depth
64 of 64
BTC risk metrics matched once we supplied their definitions and code excerpts — MAE, capital utilization, liquidation room
2.96 billion
ETH trades replayed (2,963,456,806) across 4 cost scenarios
$35.83
error the review found in our published ETH figures — it understated our result; corrected, both fingerprints published

Commissioned · Independent · Reproduced. Historical simulations — past results do not guarantee future returns.

What was rebuilt

Each rebuild used the same Binance aggTrades (trade-by-trade) data, the same window (Jan 1, 2021 – Aug 24, 2026) and all published cost scenarios. The method, results and conclusions are the reviewer's.

BTC perpetual futures

Jan 1, 2021 – Aug 24, 2026

reported realized ROI
+1,550.89%
max drawdown
−81.31%
closed cycles
14,018
liquidations reported
0

All 4 cost scenarios matched our published figures — final wallet, ROI, closed cycles, liquidations, capital resets and max drawdown. The largest money difference in these totals was under one billionth of a dollar. The published risk metrics matched 64 of 64 once we supplied their definitions and the relevant code excerpts.

ETH perpetual futures

Jan 1, 2021 – Aug 24, 2026

reported ROI, final position closed
+1,359.75%
max drawdown
−50.24%
closed cycles
45,104
liquidations reported
0

The first full run did not match our totals: our specification had given trigger checks a small tolerance, but our run compares trade prices with trigger prices exactly, so we supplied that rule and a one-day list of our cycles. After that, all 4 cost scenarios were reproduced over 2,963,456,806 trades: cycle counts, capital resets, fees, slippage, drawdown, liquidation room and completed-cycle holding statistics matched, and the baseline realized wallet matched to the last digit.

The first out-of-sample window

Preset unchanged · 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-30. Exit-net values the final open position at the mark close, less exit costs.

ETH disclosure: Aug 25–Sep 1 had been used by rejected research before preset selection on Sep 7–8 (data through Aug 24, apart from the Aug 25, 00:00 UTC minute corrected on Sep 30). The Sep 2–Sep 30 window, not used in any prior research, was also run from a fresh wallet; the ETH hash was published Sep 8, 2026.

Next out-of-sample result: Q4 2026 (Oct 1–Dec 31), published in early January 2027 — same presets, unchanged, with the execution plan frozen before the run, published whatever the result.

Checked to the minute

One wrong minute in 5.6 years — found by the rebuild, fixed in public.

Our published ETH result had been valued at the Aug 25, 2026 00:00 mark close — one minute inside the out-of-sample window we had sealed. We moved it to the Aug 24, 23:59 close. The baseline ending capital rose from $1,946,288.58 to $1,946,324.41 — $35.83 higher — and the report fingerprints (SHA-256) from before and after the correction are both published.

See the correction record

Return and drawdown, side by side

+1,550.89% — and the −81.31% drawdown it took.

Both public backtests show the max drawdown next to the return: BTC +1,550.89% with a −81.31% max drawdown, ETH +1,359.75% with a −50.24% max drawdown. Trading fees are deducted, and funding and slippage variants are published separately. Both results include reinvestment through resets of the investment base after each 10% wallet growth; the live bot does not reinvest automatically.

What the rebuild found against us

We publish the stress tests too

On the baseline cost scenario, the reviewer changed one execution rule at a time. The volume and delay tests below lowered the ending balance by 24.9–59.0%, and none of the reviewer's tests produced a modelled liquidation. The reports list every test.

Fills need traded volume of 1–2× the order size at or through the order price

BTCEnding wallet 24.9–26.4% lower · max drawdown −91.9% to −92.8%

ETHEnding capital 41.7–45.5% lower · max drawdown −48.0% to −51.6%

1-second delay before re-entry and before placing or re-pricing ladder and take-profit orders

BTCEnding wallet 40.5% lower

ETHEnding capital 59.0% lower

For reference, not a test — closest approach to the modelled liquidation price in the baseline

BTCPrice came within 6.04% of the modelled liquidation price

ETHModelled liquidation price 13.49% below the mark price at that moment

None of these tests produced a liquidation. The volume tests use traded volume as a proxy with an assumed queue and all-or-nothing fills, so they bracket queue effects rather than measure them, and the tests were not combined. The model's liquidation rules are not the exchange's, so 0 modelled liquidations do not prove an account would have survived on the exchange.

What a reproduction does not prove

  • It checks the model's arithmetic, not live execution. The model assumes every order fills in full as soon as a trade prints at or through its price, with no delay.
  • Some cycles depend on instant execution: 2,937 of 14,018 BTC and 14,897 of 45,104 ETH baseline cycles lasted under one second, producing 15.2% and 20.2% of closed-cycle profit, respectively. On ETH, prices are also compared in binary floating point, so a trade exactly at an order's price can fail to trigger it, where an exchange would fill the order.
  • Liquidation is modelled with a flat maintenance rate, not the exchange's tiers. On BTC it is judged on trade prices rather than the exchange's mark price; on ETH each minute's closing mark price is applied from the start of that minute, before that price was known, and risk is checked only at certain events.
  • Past results do not guarantee future returns, and leveraged futures can lose more than any backtest shows.
  • The results cover the exact published presets. Your own settings need their own test — you can run one free.
  • The exact (unrounded) ladder parameters were given to the reviewer privately. At our request the public repositories omit them, so they cannot fully reproduce the results on their own. The ladders themselves are visible to anyone with a free account, though: the app shows every tier of the published BTC and ETH presets, as rounded values.

Check it yourself

Backtest reproduction — frequently asked questions

Has anyone independent checked the Blitz backtest results?

Yes — they were reproduced, which is narrower than an audit. In September 2026 Blitz commissioned and paid Ranveer Verma, an independent analyst, to rebuild its BTC and ETH futures backtests from a written specification, the parameters Blitz supplied and written answers to the reviewer's questions, without the engine's source code, and rerun them on the same Binance aggTrades data. For BTC, all 4 cost scenarios and all 14,018 baseline cycles matched. For ETH, the first full run did not match; after Blitz supplied its exact price-comparison rule and a one-day list of its cycles, all 4 scenarios were reproduced over 2,963,456,806 trades. The reports and code are public on GitHub.

What does a reproduced backtest prove?

That the published numbers follow from the stated rules and the market data: someone who rebuilt the model from our specification, parameters and written answers, without our engine's source code, got the same results — on ETH once we had supplied our exact price-comparison rule and a one-day cycle list. It does not prove the strategy will be profitable, and it does not prove live fills — the model assumes every order fills in full the moment a trade prints at or through its price, with no delay.

What error was found in the Blitz ETH backtest?

Our published ETH result had been valued at the Aug 25, 2026 00:00 mark close, one minute inside the out-of-sample window we had sealed. We corrected it to the Aug 24, 23:59 close (baseline ending capital $1,946,288.58 → $1,946,324.41) and kept the report fingerprints from before and after the correction public. From indirect evidence, the report also concludes that the three funding scenarios had charged that minute's funding payment.

Who rebuilt the Blitz backtests, and were they paid?

Ranveer Verma, an independent analyst. Blitz commissioned and paid for the work. The method, results and conclusions are the reviewer's, including the negative findings, and the reports and code are published in the reviewer's own GitHub repositories.

Did the Blitz backtests have any liquidations?

The published BTC and ETH runs report 0 liquidations, and none of the reviewer's stress tests produced one. At the closest point, the BTC price came within 6.04% of the modelled liquidation price, and in the ETH baseline the modelled liquidation price was 13.49% below the mark price at that moment. The model's liquidation rules differ from the exchange's — a flat maintenance rate instead of the exchange's tiers, trade prices instead of the mark price on BTC, and on ETH each minute's closing mark applied from the start of that minute — so 0 modelled liquidations do not prove an account would have survived on the exchange.

What return and drawdown do the Blitz backtests show?

Both public backtests show the max drawdown next to the return: BTC +1,550.89% with a −81.31% max drawdown and ETH +1,359.75% with a −50.24% max drawdown, over Jan 1, 2021 – Aug 24, 2026. Trading fees are deducted, and funding and slippage variants are published separately. Both results include reinvestment through resets of the investment base after each 10% wallet growth; the live bot does not reinvest automatically.

Can I reproduce the Blitz backtest myself from GitHub?

Not from GitHub alone. The reviewer's reports and code are public, and the BTC report JSON can be downloaded with its SHA-256 fingerprint and a DOI archive copy, but the exact (unrounded) ladder values the reproductions used were given to the reviewer privately and, at our request, the public repositories omit them. The same ladders are visible in the Blitz app to anyone with a free account, as rounded values, which are not enough to match the published figures exactly.

Can I backtest my own settings?

Yes. After logging in, you can backtest your own DCA settings (long setups) free in the strategy editor, on up to a year (366 days) of 1-minute candles for curated symbols, depending on available data. There is no plan-gated lookback and no monthly run quota. The reproduced backtests apply only to the exact published presets.

Now test your own settings

The reproduced results cover two published presets. Backtest yours free on up to 366 days of 1-minute candles — no plan gate, no monthly run quota.